Integrating Biophysical and Socioeconomic Factors in Modeling Impacts of Global Environmental Change

This paper presents examples of modeling studies carried out at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) where an integration of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in modeling impacts of global environmental was successfully achieved. The first example is taken from an integrated analysis of the impacts of alternative future energy paths on the regional supply and trade of agricultural products. Second, three complementary approaches for analyzing and projecting regional land use are discussed. The methods have been developed by the Land Use Change (LUC) Project at IIASA and have been applied to assess land-use trajectories and prospects of China’s food and agriculture sectors. It is concluded that land-use policy alternatives aimed at minimizing adverse impacts of global environmental change can adequately be analyzed in an economic framework using optimization when this is well informed by incorporating a representation of climate and biophysical conditions in the model specification.